Nigeria’s presidential election outcome and the foreign observer missions

By Temitope Ajayi

The outcome of Nigeria’s presidential election won by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has thrown up all kinds of analysis on social and mainstream media.

A review of the post-election reportage of a section of the media with a patently nattering anti-Tinubu stance continuously project the election as “rigged” and “manipulated” in favour of the APC candidate, while citing reports of foreign and that of some rabidly partisan local observers.

It is apparent that there is a grand and devious scheme to sway the minds of members of the public to accept the unfounded rigging claims by the opposition elements who have deployed all manner of misinformation, blackmail, threats, intimidation, subterfuge and even coercion.

It is quite disconcerting watching otherwise respected individuals on primetime television taking up the enviable role of salesmen and women for lies.

Often cited to support their treacherous and perfidious vituperation on radio and television stations are supposed reports of foreign observers who monitored the February 25th, 2023 presidential and National Assembly elections. These blatant distortions of the reports of foreign observer missions will no longer go unchallenged.

What are the facts and what did the foreign observer missions say about the conduct of general elections, and the presidential election in particular? First, let’s bring to the fore what each of the missions opined in their reports as regards the general conduct of the election and substantiality in terms of compliance with the governing laws under which the polls were conducted vis-a-vis global best practices.

Starting with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Observer Mission, the sub-regional bloc under the leadership of former President of Sierra Leone, Ernest Koroma, who led delegation, noted that the Presidential and National Assembly elections were “generally peaceful and transparent.” This runs contrary to the vile propaganda overdrive by the opposition that the election was marred by violence, voter suppression and intimidation.

Though it admits that voter turnout was generally low, the leader of the team, ex-President Koroma declared: “Vote counting and tallying processes were carried out in a transparent, simple and professional manner in the presence of party agents, observers and security agents in the daytime in some polling units and with lamps in others places where voting was delayed.”

Like every human exercise prone to hitches, the ECOWAS Team acknowledged late arrivals of election materials in few polling units and pockets of violence in less than five out of the 36 states of the Nigeria federation.

The continental body, African Union (AU), sent 32 teams of observers to 17 states in Nigeria covering the six geo-political zones. In total, the AU Observers, according to the Election Observation Report posted on the AU Commission website, visited a total of 438 polling units to observe the voting, closing and counting procedures in urban and rural areas.

The AU Observer Mission, in its report signed by former President of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, the leader of the delegation said: “In 95 percent of polling units visited, the atmosphere was generally calm and peaceful, except for isolated incidents of violence in Kano, Lagos, Delta, Abuja and Cross River.

“The Mission further notes the positive measures undertaken by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to reschedule polls to 26th February, 2023 in specific areas where voting could not take place due to insecurity or logistical reasons.”

From available records from various local and international observers, media reports and security agencies, the polling units where there was any form of incidence due to logistics challenges, malfunction of BVAS machines or violence are not up to 500 nationwide out of over 176,000 polling units. Statistically, the number is too insignificant to impact on the outcome of the election or cause a major shift in the final results.

Africa’s outstanding statesman and former President of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, led the Commonwealth Team of Foreign Observers.

In their report, the Commonwealth Mission stated that they deployed their Election Observers to the Federal Capital Territory (Abuja), Benue, (Makurdi), Edo (Benin City), Kano, Lagos, Ondo (Akure), Rivers (Port Harcourt) and Sokoto States.

Mbeki, in his team’s preliminary assessment of the electoral process at a press conference in Abuja on 27 February, 2023, noted that the election was “largely peaceful” despite administrative and logistical hurdles at many polling units, adding that, “Nigerians were largely accorded the right to vote.”

Addressing local and foreign journalists, Mbeki said further: “We congratulate all Nigerians for their determination, patience and resilience displayed throughout the electoral process…we call on all those with grievances to address disputes through prescribed legal channels.”

While the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI) in their joint report devoted more attention to some of the logistical challenges and identified gaps which they have already advised INEC to address in future elections, the two institutes validated and attested to the peaceful conduct of the election and substantial observance of the rules and procedures by electoral officials at all levels.

IRI and NDI specifically affirmed the good use of BVAS and how the electronic accreditation system enhanced the transparency of the election.

The 40-person IRI/NDI delegation, with members from 20 countries, was led by Dr. Joyce Banda, former President of the Republic of Malawi. In her delegation were Ambassador Mark Green, President and CEO of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and former Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development; NDI Board Member, Ambassador Johnnie Carson, former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs at the U.S. Department of State, IRI Board Member, Constance Berry Newman, former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs at the U.S. Department of State, NDI Board Member, Stacey Abrams, American political leader, lawyer and voting rights activist, and IRI Board Member, Dana White, former Assistant to the U.S. Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs, NDI President, Ambassador Derek Mitchell and IRI President, Dr. Daniel Twining. The Mission visited Nigeria from February 20 to 27, 2023, and deployed Observer Teams to 20 states covering all the six geo-political zones and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

Excerpts of the IRI/NDI Election Observation Report: “Observers noted that the BVAS largely functioned properly, although some polling officials struggled to understand how to operate the system and, in many cases, the BVAS failed to authenticate voters via fingerprints, while the facial recognition featured functioned well.

“Closing and Counting: Most observers reported that officials followed guidance to allow all voters in line to vote, which in some cases extended voting well past the 2.30pm closing time as a result of the late openings. Ballot counting extended into the night in some locations, necessitating the use of cellphone lights to record results and pack up materials.

“Observers noted that in polling units with more than 1,000 registered voters, sorting and counting of ballots moved slowly. In one instance where only 202 ballots were cast, sorting, counting went on smoothly, but despite delays, voters engaged enthusiastically in the ballot counting process and polling officials generally followed procedures by counting ballots transparently in the full view of the public. Voters were generally informed of the closing and counting procedures, with a few observers noting that voters insisted that the polling officials transfered the results electronically before proceeding to the ward collation centre.”

From the foregoing, it is trite to state that there is nothing in the reports of the foreign Observer Missions that suggested or have any indication of a flawed election and doomsday scenario the opposition figures have repeatedly made a song and dance of in the aftermath of the 2023 general elections.

Fact remains that the leaders of the two leading opposition parties, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP) knew, long ago, that they lost the election fair and square to the APC candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.

Every credible pre-election forecast projected Asiwaju Tinubu as the clear winner inspite of the turbulent and orchestrated socio-economic quagmire the nation was thrown into as a result of scarcity of fuel and naira notes, which made living unbearable for generality of Nigerians.